Business & Economics

Fooled by Randomness

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 368

View: 747

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes. Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill. This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives. The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness. However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance. Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared. Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
Study Aids

Quicklet on Nassim Taleb's Fooled by Randomness (CliffNotes-like Summary)

Author: Abdul Montaqim

Publisher: Hyperink Inc

ISBN:

Category: Study Aids

Page: 24

View: 455

ABOUT THE BOOK When I was in school I considered a career in finance. Or to be more embarrassingly precise, I considered becoming an accountant. I chose the appropriate subjects and got myself onto a business degree course. I was still only 19 and you could say I was following a non-random course towards my career objective. But then, just months before I was supposed to start my degree course, in what might be considered random events, I became involved in newspapers and learned skills such as writing and page layout. I decided against the degree course. I managed to get some money together to launch my own publication. And I’ve been in the media ever since. I feel lucky that the circumstances that I found myself in at that time have resulted in a relatively long and moderately successful career in journalism, but I can’t help thinking that none of it was planned and, therefore, on one level, it was random. I’m not sure Nassim Taleb, author of Fooled by Randomness, would agree with me, however. In fact, even if Taleb spent a wrote book explaining his thoughts on the matter, I’m not sure that I’d completely understand it—such is the depth to which he analyses events and the complexity of his theories about said events. MEET THE AUTHOR Abdul Montaqim is a journalist, based in London, and has been working in the media since 1989. Among the more well known titles he has written for are The Guardian newspaper, Time Out magazine and the International Business Times website. He has edited a number of local and community newspapers, magazines and websites, and has, over the course of his career, worked for some of the largest publishers in Europe, including Emap, LLP and Mirror Group Newspapers. Abdul has also worked outside of the United Kingdom, moving to Abu Dhabi for a year to work on the first national daily newspaper in United Arab Emirates, The National; and he has consulted for media companies in Bangladesh, where he was born. Abdul briefly worked for a New York-headquartered cable television channel called AsiaNet as a news editor, and realised that although he loves researching, writing and other "technical" parts of a journalist's job, he does not like presenting, preferring to be behind the camera or back in the studio. He also realised that, although reporting a story through the medium of television is obviously different from telling it through a newspaper or magazine, the heart and mind of every media company is researching and writing. In his spare time, Abdul likes to spend time with his family, cooking, eating, watching films, listening to music, reading and writing. When he goes out he likes to watch movies at the best cinemas, see live music performances, and eat at good restaurants. He also loves gardening, fishing and going for long walks. EXCERPT FROM THE BOOK Taleb touches on Darwin’s theory of evolution. He does not share the widely held view that Darwinism can be applied to the business world. Meaning that he doesn’t believe that the strongest companies will survive and the weakest will become extinct. “Things are not as simple as that,” he writes. The problem, he explains, comes from randomness. “Once randomness is injected into a system... what seems to be an evolution may be merely a diversion, and possibly regression...” Buy a copy to keep reading!
Business & Economics

SUMMARY - Fooled By Randomness: The Hidden Role Of Chance In Life And In The Markets By Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Author: Shortcut Edition

Publisher: Shortcut Edition

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 35

View: 671

* Our summary is short, simple and pragmatic. It allows you to have the essential ideas of a big book in less than 30 minutes. By reading this summary, you will learn how to better take chance into account when making decisions. You will also learn : that the human being is not gifted to think rationally; that economists, journalists and traders are not as reliable as they seem; that success is not necessarily synonymous with competence or intelligence; how best to deal with unpredictability; how to become wiser. Chance, sometimes called luck or fate, is an unavoidable parameter of events and life itself. However, human beings persist in wanting to reduce its importance, believing in their arrogance to be able to control it, or even make it disappear. Experts of all stripes, traders and even economists thus boast of predicting the future... until they are wrong, which inevitably happens. Since chance is surely stronger than human reason, it would be wiser to be humble. If man is irremediably fallible and incapable of thinking correctly, would it not be better to take this limitation into account, rather than trying to fight it? Discover some keys to do so! *Buy now the summary of this book for the modest price of a cup of coffee!
Aphorisms and apothegms

Incerto

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Editeurs divers USA

ISBN:

Category: Aphorisms and apothegms

Page: 1568

View: 691

Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don't understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes--Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material--are now together in one boxed set. ANTIFRAGILE "Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides."--The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls "antifragile" is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN "[A book] that altered modern thinking."--The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we--especially the experts--are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS "[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church."--Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill--the markets--Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES "Taleb's crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems."--Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.

Incerto

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House Trade

ISBN:

Category:

Page: 1872

View: 785

The landmark five-book series--all together in one boxed set The Incerto is an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision making when we don't understand the world, expressed in the form of a personal essay with autobiographical sections, stories, parables, and philosophical, historical, and scientific discussions, in non-overlapping volumes that can be accessed in any order. The main thread is that while there is inordinate uncertainty about what is going on, there is great certainty as to what one should do about it. This boxed set includes: FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS THE BLACK SWAN THE BED OF PROCRUSTES ANTIFRAGILE SKIN IN THE GAME
Business & Economics

Fooled by Randomness Pivotal Points

Author: Pivotal Point Papers

Publisher: CreateSpace

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 26

View: 585

Fooled by Randomness Pivotal Points is your aide to rapid comprehension of the essential business principles delineated in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's acclaimed book Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.Taleb argues that analysts that work with historical market data to find patterns will of course find regularities. When people work hard, they will of course find similarities, but does not really statistically account into anything other than irregularities. Taleb uses “Survivor Bias” to discuss poor probability. Nassim Taleb's, undertakes in Fooled by Randomness, the warning not to equate success to skill and failure to bad luck.As with all books in the Pivotal Point Papers Series, this book is intended to be purchased alongside the reviewed title, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets.

Summary

Author: Greg Collins

Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform

ISBN:

Category:

Page: 24

View: 824

Randomness is everywhere and involved in almost everything, especially politics and the economy. Presidents foolishly boast about all the jobs that "he created," when it was only the chance of the market. Our belief that we owe our success to our own abilities, instead of recognizing most of our success comes from chance, is just another primitive superstition from our ancient past, the author argues. The human mind all too often sees elephants in the clouds, when it's really just water vapors that happen to have randomly assumed shapes we associate with elephants for a brief period of time. The author is particularly critical of the literary mind, which is trained to see meaning where there is only noise. The literary mind is so obsessed with meaning that it extracts all sorts of meanings from obscure passages and insignificant events that have nothing to do with those meanings at all. They see the intent of an author where it was clearly only random, such as a minute word choice or the placement of a certain imagery. The study of randomness is a young science, but quickly growing. The error that skill is more important than sheer fortune has its worst impact in the market, the author argues. We all too often hold up a great businessman in high esteem for his great skill and vision, when in reality 99.9 percent of his riches are due purely to chance.
Study Aids

Summary of Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s Fooled By Randomness by Swift Reads

Author: Swift Reads

Publisher: Swift Reads

ISBN:

Category: Study Aids

Page: 36

View: 129

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (2001) explains how humans routinely underestimate the role luck plays in determining outcomes. This failure to account for uncertainty can lead someone to attribute meaning to a result where none exists, or to overlook the probability of a rare but cataclysmic event… Purchase this in-depth summary to learn more.
Business & Economics

Incerto 4-Book Bundle

Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Publisher: Random House

ISBN:

Category: Business & Economics

Page: 1568

View: 735

Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series is an investigation of luck, uncertainty, probability, opacity, human error, risk, disorder, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand, in nonoverlapping and standalone books. All four volumes—Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and the expanded edition of The Bed of Procrustes, updated with more than 50 percent new material—are now together in one ebook bundle. ANTIFRAGILE “Startling . . . richly crammed with insights, stories, fine phrases and intriguing asides.”—The Wall Street Journal Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from disorder, volatility, and turmoil. What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better. What is crucial is that the antifragile loves errors, as it incurs small harm and large benefits from them. Spanning politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine in an interdisciplinary and erudite style, Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world. THE BLACK SWAN “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows that black swan events underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS “[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”—Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? Fooled by Randomness is about luck: more precisely, about how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill—the markets—Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in our lives. THE BED OF PROCRUSTES “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times This collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb’s major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical views of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness.